Saturday, April 17, 2010

Increasing Levels of Global Carbon Dioxide

Increasing Levels of Global Carbon Dioxide
A unique Canadian record of increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the global atmosphere is being measured by Environment Canada in Alert, Nunavut, at the northern tip of Ellesmere Island, about 800 km from the North Pole. The measurements are being taken at the Dr. Neil Trivett Global Atmospheric Watch Station, which is the world's most northerly site in an international network of monitoring stations coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization. The remote location of the site ensures that the measurements indicate changes in the global atmosphere, as there is virtually no contamination from nearby sources of carbon dioxide.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Measure at Alert, Canada
The graph indicates that carbon dioxide in the global atmosphere has been rising rapidly since 1975. The red line indicates the average upward trend, while the blue line shows annual fluctuations. (Each year carbon dioxide decreases during the summer in Northern Hemisphere, as plant growth absorbs carbon from the atmosphere; and increases during the winter.)
This research confirms global trends in carbon dioxide, and provides better carbon source - sink estimates for North America, particularly for the northern regions. The graph presents daily averaged carbon dioxide mixing ratios in parts per million (ppm) from 1975 to 2008.
The global oceans are the largest natural reservoir for this excess carbon dioxide, absorbing approximately one-third of the carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by human activities each year, and over the next millennium, is expected to absorb approximately 90% of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere. It is now well established that there is a strong possibility that dissolved CO2 in the ocean surface will double over its pre-industrial value by the middle of this century, with accompanying surface ocean acidity (pH) and carbonate ion (CO32-) decreases that are greater than those experienced during the transition from ice ages to warm ages. The uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the ocean changes the chemistry of the oceans and can potentially have significant impacts on the biological systems in the upper oceans. Estimates of future atmospheric and oceanic CO2 concentrations, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios and general circulation models that include the biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients, indicate that by middle of this century atmospheric CO2 levels could be reach over 500 ppm, and near the end of the century they could be over 800 ppm. Corresponding models for the oceans indicate that surface water acidity (pH) drop would be approximately 0.4 pH units, and the carbonate ion concentration would decrease almost 50 % by the end of the century. This surface ocean pH drop would be lower than it has been for more than twenty million years. A pH reduction of approximately 0.1 unit in surface waters has occurred already due to oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2.
Recent field and laboratory studies reveal that the carbonate chemistry of seawater has a profound negative impact on the calcification rates of individual species and communities in both planktonic (floating) and ocean bottom organisms. The calcification rate of nearly all calcium-secreting organisms investigated to date decreased in response to decreased carbonate ion concentration. This response holds across multiple taxonomic groups from single-celled organisms to reef-building corals. In general, when dissolved CO2 was increased to two times pre-industrial levels, a decrease in the calcification rate was observed, ranging from -5 to -50%.

This is a real problem, the ocean chemical composition is affected in such magnitude, many species are in risk to decrease in population or even extinct. Is important to acknowledge that the ocean is the environmental system more interrelated, therefore is hard to modify, but if this happening, as it looks like, it can have major consequences on a global scale. That`s why we are in a counter clock rise to solve this issue.

resources:
NOAAS (office of oceanic and athmospheric research) www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Environmetal Canada http://www.ec.gc.ca/sc-cs/default.asp?lang=En&n=0EC06FB9-1#1

Historical radar

Track the historical data of presipitation (rain/snow) in Vancouber Island and any other region in Canada with the ¨historical radar¨

http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?RadarSite=XSI&sYear=2010&sMonth=4&sDay=17&sHour=17&sMin=20&sec=00&Duration=2&ImageType=PRECIP_RAIN
Predicted effects of global warming on our local ecosystem (by the year 2100):

Water temperature: Logically, as the earth gets warmer, oceans are expected to heat up. This heating isn’t true in all cases –changes in currents and weather patterns are actually expected to lead to cooling in northwest Europe, however climate models predict approximately a 4.5°C increase in surface temperature, which consequentially also leads to an increase in water temperature.

Sea levels: Another common connection with global warming is the rise in sea levels. Contrary to popular belief, this is not caused by melting ice caps, instead by the expansion of the upper layer of the ocean as it heats, and melting alpine glaciers. Sea level rise caused by the melting ice caps is actually balanced out by increased snowfall in these regions. The expected rise is approximately 50cm; however models vary from 15-95cm. Furthermore, local tidal patterns can cause a much greater or lower rise in sea levels. Regardless, it can be expected that Pedder Bay will see a significant rise in sea levels if global warming continues.

Precipitation: Global warming causes an overall increase in precipitation, however the changing weather patterns produce almost unpredictable results across the globe. Recent maps place Victoria and Pedder Bay between an area of 60% increase in rainfall below us and a are of drought (30% decrease in rainfall) above us. While we could fit into either one of these patterns, recent data from RaceRocks seems to suggest rainfall is falling in the region.

Acidification: The final effect of global warming I will comment on here is ocean acidification. The ocean acts like a gigantic carbon sink, absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. Increased amounts of CO2 increase the oceans absorption. While this limits the effect of greenhouse gasses, once in the ocean the CO2 converts to Carbonic Acid (H2CO3). This increases the overall acidity on the ocean, including Pedder bay, and has a hugely detrimental effect on sea life.

Sources:
Earth's Future Climate
Author(s): Mark A. Saunders
Source: Philosophical Transactions: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 357, No. 1763, Science into the Next Millennium: Young Scientists Give Their Visions of the Future. Part 1: Astronomy and Earth Sciences (Dec. 15, 1999), pp. 3459-3480
Published by: The Royal Society
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1353858

The Next Ocean: Humanity's Extra CO₂ Could Brew a New Kind of Sea
Author(s): Susan Milius
Source: Science News, Vol. 173, No. 11 (Mar. 15, 2008), pp. 170-172
Published by: Society for Science & the Public
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20465314

Results

Hey everybody. Morning (and afternoon research) went well, and were about ready to start finalizing results and presenting them here. Our plan is to look, first at the specific effects of global warming at our location. Then we'll intigrate any local factors, compare with local data, and finally see how our predicted changes in the oceans composition will actually effect sea life. The following post it our first, explaining the general effects of global warming in our area.




Rainfall


From the graphs, we can see that there has been a decrease of rainfall on Race Rocks. Rain water provides the only natural source of freshwater on the island. If this pattern continues due to climate change the effects would be dire for species that are dependant on the availability of fresh water. On examle is the Canada Goose.


At Race Rocks there is normally a drought of fresh water from June to September which is normally replenished in the winter time by rainfall. If this trend of lack of rainfall continues, due to climate change, the amount of water during the replenishing process will decrease or eventuallycease to exist. This means that organisms that rely heavily on fresh water will no longer be able to find a source on Race Rocks and will eventually leave the island permanently.





Temperature



From the information presented in the graphs, there is a trend of decreasing teperatures on Race Rocks. This can also have dire consequences on the organisms that call the island home as they need constant temperature to survive. Many species are sensitive to temperatures just a few degrees higher or lower than those they usually experience. Race Rocks lies on the Pacific Coast of Canada, where temperatures remain warm enough in the winter to allow plants to keep their green leaves. Terrestrial plants that grow on the island tend to grow within a few meters of the seashore, usually above the spray zone. Being surrounded by ocean, which never goes below 7 degrees celcius in the winter, island ecosystems such as Race Rocks often avoid the extremes of temperature and allows certain plants to continue to grow. If the decreasing temperature trend continues, many of these plants will not be able to survive, bringing a loack of biodiversity to the island. One of these plants is Tracy's mistmaiden.



http://www.racerocks.com/racerock/eco/taxalab/genevievea.htm





Salinity


The graph on salinity shows that the salinity over time has remained relatively constant. This effect is advantageous for organisms that require a constant salinity. Level reaching up to 100 parts per thousand have been recorded on the island. Projections for the future show that salinity may decrease due to climate change. Many marine organisms would have a difficult time adjusting to the change to less saline waters which they are adapted to deal with. One of which is bull kelp which would lose a lot of its dissolved salts to the less saline oceans.


http://www.racerocks.com/racerock/eco/taxalab/bio2002/nereocystisl.htm






Is there evidence?

So we must have some form of evidence to show the effects of this monster "Climate Change".
So I will try to explain this to you as best I can...
Based on the notes posted by my colleague Adam, it is evident that there are effects of global warming on the ocean. In our particular area there are some issues that are more prominent than others and therefore those will be discussed using graphs where necessary. The main effects of climate change on Race Rocks are sea temperature, air temperature, salinity of water and rainfall.

Salinity of Water

This graph shows that there has not been much change in the salinity of water, but for certain months there have been small decreases this is accurate when compared to previous research by Adam and literature found.

Air TemperatureThe graph compares the average temperature of the month of July from 2006 to 2009. From the graph it can be seen that there is a decrease in temperature but this cannot be used as accurate evidence as it is covers a short amount of time and does not agree with literature, but it is important to note that there is a trend.

Rainfall
According to Adam’s research and literature it is said that there is expected to be a decrease in rainfall, this graph provides evidence that this decrease is currently happening. Between 2006 and 2008 the rainfall dropped by nearly 100 millimeters. This decrease will have consequences for wildlife which Ashley will discuss.

Sea Temperature


The graph above shows that the temperature of the ocean has been decreasing as a result of climate change. With the ocean becoming colder this causes problems for wildlife, which will be discussed later.

Read more from A to the power of four!